Published by Crackers Books,

5 July 2024

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Research Paper Crunch\\


Analyzing "Thailand's China Policy, 2014–2019: ​Hedging Against China?"


Bunyavejchewin, P., & Buddharaksa, W. (2024). Thailand's China policy, 2014–2019: Hedging against China? ​Heliyon, 10, e33366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33366


Introduction

The paper "Thailand's China Policy, 2014–2019: Hedging Against China?" by Poowin Bunyavejchewin ​and Watcharabon Buddharaksa provides an insightful analysis of Thailand’s foreign policy towards ​China under the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) led by General Prayut Chan-o-cha. This ​research challenges the prevailing notion that Thailand completely bandwagoned with China and ​instead posits that Thailand adopted a hedging strategy.


Strengths of the Paper

  1. Comprehensive Framework: The use of Kuik’s hedging theory provides a robust analytical ​framework. This theory is well-grounded and widely accepted in international relations, making the ​analysis both credible and theoretically sound.
  2. Empirical Evidence: The authors draw on a range of primary and secondary sources, including ​archives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Thailand and scholarly publications. This extensive ​use of empirical data strengthens the study’s findings.
  3. Nuanced Analysis: The paper effectively challenges simplistic dichotomies of balancing and ​bandwagoning by illustrating the complexity of Thailand’s foreign policy maneuvers. It highlights ​how Thailand simultaneously employed return-maximizing and risk-contingency strategies.
  4. Contextual Insight: The study places Thailand’s foreign policy within the broader context of ​domestic politics and regime legitimation, providing a deeper understanding of the motivations ​behind policy decisions.


Weaknesses of the Paper

  1. Limited Scope: The analysis is confined to the period of 2014–2019 and the NCPO government. ​While this focus is deliberate, it limits the generalizability of the findings to other periods or regimes ​in Thai politics.
  2. Reliance on Non-Probability Sampling: The use of non-probability sampling for selecting ​instances of Thailand’s China policy may introduce bias. Although the authors justify this approach, ​it still raises questions about the representativeness of the selected cases.
  3. Potential Overemphasis on Domestic Factors: While the focus on regime legitimation is insightful, ​it might overshadow other significant international factors influencing Thailand’s foreign policy, ​such as regional security dynamics and economic considerations.


Lessons Learned

  1. Complexity of Foreign Policy: The study underscores the complexity of foreign policy decisions in ​smaller states, which often navigate between major powers using sophisticated strategies rather ​than straightforward alignments.
  2. Importance of Regime Legitimation: Domestic political stability and regime legitimacy are crucial ​factors shaping foreign policy. Leaders are often driven by the need to maintain internal cohesion ​and support, influencing their international strategies.
  3. Value of Hedging: Hedging emerges as a valuable strategy for smaller states to balance relations ​with multiple major powers. It allows for flexibility and the pursuit of national interests without full ​commitment to any single power.


Conclusion

The paper by Bunyavejchewin and Buddharaksa offers a nuanced and well-supported analysis of ​Thailand's China policy under the NCPO. By employing Kuik’s hedging theory, the authors provide a ​compelling argument against the notion of complete bandwagoning with China. Instead, they ​demonstrate how Thailand’s foreign policy was a balanced act of maximizing returns and mitigating ​risks. This study is a valuable contribution to the literature on international relations and foreign policy ​analysis, particularly for scholars interested in the dynamics of Southeast Asian geopolitics.


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